Student visa data released yesterday (November 30^th) by the Home Office show that the UK has performed extremely strongly in non-EU student recruitment in the first three quarters of 2017, with particularly strong growth from China as well as markets in South Asia. As a large majority of student visas are issued between June and September, growth rates over this period will give a very accurate reflection of growth over the whole of 2017.

In total, the number of Tier 4 and equivalent visas issued to main applicants (i.e. not including dependents) between January and September rose by 9.6 per cent over the same period of 2016, while short term student (student visitor) visas increased by almost 25 per cent. This is significantly higher than last year’s trend, as visa issuances actually fell slightly in 2016 compared to 2015.

China again accounted for the largest part of this growth, making up more than two thirds of total net growth. The total number of Tier 4 visas issued to main applicants rose to 84,380, up nearly 16 per cent – almost twice the growth rate seen last year. But this also means that the UK is increasingly dependent on Mainland Chinese students, who now account for 43 per cent of total student visas.

Another highlight is extremely strong growth in South Asian markets. The number of visas issued to Indian students increased by 27 per cent to 12,384 in the first three quarters of the year, while Pakistan increased by 37 per cent and Bangladesh saw 24 per cent growth. In all three of these countries, visa growth rates were well over 20 percentage points higher than those seen between 2015 and 2016.

However, despite strong growth overall and in several key markets, not all countries saw an increase in student numbers. The number of visas issued to Malaysian and Nigerian students saw significant drops, although in both cases the rate of decline was slower than last year. Both of these countries are within the top 10 markets for UK non-EU student recruitment.

Two other markets that performed poorly were Indonesia and Vietnam. Both performed worse than last year in terms of both student numbers and growth rates. In Indonesia the drop was particularly abrupt, more than wiping out the strong gains seen last year, while the number of visas issued to Vietnamese students fell more rapidly in 2017 than in 2016. Trends in these countries may be concerning given their strong economic growth and therefore their increasing importance in global student mobility. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan also saw a significant drop in student numbers and fell out of the top 25 countries in terms of visa issuances.

Details for the UK’s top 25 visa issuance markets are given in the table below. Numbers refer to Tier 4 and equivalent visas issued to main applicants, and do not include short-term study (student visitor) visa or visas issued to dependents. In each case, the period refers only to the first three quarters of the year.

Growth in short-term student (student visitor) visas was even stronger than that seen for Tier 4 visas. The overall growth rate was 24.6 per cent, with even stronger growth in several key countries – the number of Chinese short-term students increased by almost half, while Russian students were up by 72 per cent.

Analysis by Kevin Prest

According to the British Council’s experience, one important driver of the increase in student numbers has been the shift in exchange rates. The weaker pound has effectively made UK education more affordable to international students from most countries, and therefore more attractive in comparison to competing destinations or domestic study.

In certain markets such as those in South Asia, another important factor is at play. Changes to the UK’s visa policy earlier in the decade, especially the removal of post-study work rights, made UK education less attractive to many students from these countries and led to a substantial drop in student numbers. Although this is still an important factor to many students, it has now already been taken into account in the UK’s market share, so future growth from these markets can be expected to be more in line with overall outbound student numbers – which are rising substantially due to strong economic growth.

Although the increase in non-EU student numbers will be welcomed by the UK’s education sector, Mainland China is once again responsible for the bulk of overall growth, and the country is making up an ever larger share of total student numbers. This dominance brings the risk of relying too much on a single country. China’s falling student-age population, its slowing economic growth and the increasing quality of its domestic universities mean that the number of international students coming from the country could peak in the not-too-distant future and then start to fall.

Finally, it should be noted that this data is only for students who need visas to study in the UK, which does not include EU students. There are signs that EU student numbers declined in 2017, with UCAS acceptance figures showing a drop of 2.1 per cent in EU students starting undergraduate courses compared to growth of 5.0 per cent for non-EU students. Even among non-EU students, Tier 4 visa statistics do not always line up exactly with enrolment data, as students can be enrolling on courses in different parts of the education sector or joining courses of different lengths, while the data also refers specifically to people applying for student visas overseas and so does not cover students who are already in the UK before starting their course.

Sources

UK immigration statistics, July to September 2017 (Home Office): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-july-to-september-2017-data-tables

Summary of applicants and acceptances 2017 (UCAS): https://www.ucas.com/file/135626/download?token=pQL3AOVK