UCAS end-of-cycle data shows strong growth from most non-EU countries in 2022 but a continued drop in new EU undergraduates

The most recent UCAS data release - giving the final figures for undergraduate applications and acceptances for the 2022 entry cycle - was published on December 8th, showing a 5% increase in the total number of international students accepting a place on a UK undergraduate course. But like last year the trends are still sharply different between EU and non-EU students. Non-EU students were up 15%, while EU students were down a further 28% following last year’s 50% decrease.

When considering these statistics it's important to bear in mind that they don't cover all students entering UK higher education. As well as being limited to students joining undergraduate courses, the figures also don't generally cover students transferring into later years of the course through TNE partnerships or in some cases those entering universities via partnerships with pathway providers. But this data can still help us to better understand student trends in the 2022/23 academic year, especially when put together with recently-published student visa statistics.

A comparison between student acceptances and the number of applicants shows that the overall acceptance rate for international students has stayed roughly the same as last year, with 49% of international applicants eventually accepting a place at a UK HEI. But this acceptance rate is noticeably lower than previous trends, mostly driven by a sharp drop in the acceptance rate for EU students since the post-Brexit changes to student finance took effect. The acceptance rate for non-EU students is also slightly lower than its pre-pandemic level.

(There are various reasons why an applicant might not accept a place, including failing to receive an offer; failing to achieve the grades needed for their offer; applying to universities in multiple countries and choosing a university in their home country or competitor destination over the UK; and changing their minds about going to university altogether. During the pandemic period agents also noted a trend towards students applying for institutions in multiple countries because of uncertainty over the COVID situation)

At the individual country level the two largest sending countries – China and India – both saw significant growth. This is a little different to the trend we saw in China’s visa figures, which saw a slight decline year-on-year. This difference may point towards undergraduates making up an increasing share of all students from China over the last few years.

At the same time, while undergraduate acceptances from India and other countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa have grown significantly, the pace of this growth is slower than the trend we have seen in student visa data – suggesting that the majority (although by no means all) of the growth in those regions is coming at the postgraduate level. The main reasons for this growth are likely the attractiveness of the UK’s Graduate Route allowing students to work in the UK after completing an HE course.

In the EU we continue to see bigger declines in Eastern European countries such as Poland and Romania compared to their Western European counterparts. The trend for undergraduate acceptances in the EU is weaker than the trend in visa issuances, which suggests that this region is shifting towards having a higher proportion of postgraduates. Ireland is again an exception to the trend, because Irish students still qualify for local-rate tuition fees and subsidised loans due to the UK-Ireland Common Travel Area.

The table below shows trends in the top 30 sending countries, along with totals for EU and non-EU international students.

The full UCAS data release, including figures for all countries, can be found at https://www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-sector-level-end-cycle-data-resources-2022